This CPR Insider exclusive features excerpts from Futurescan 2009: Healthcare Trends and Implications 2009–2014, published by the Society for Healthcare Strategy and Market Development (SHSMD) and the American College of Healthcare Executives (ACHE).
The 2009 edition of this popular guide to healthcare trends features practitioner surveys and thought-provoking essays by opinion leaders on the external forces that are changing the way you lead and manage your organization. This exclusive excerpt shares Futurescan findings from practitioner surveys on key issues including globalization, immigration, the emergence of new competitors, and the push for transparency.
Practitioner Prediction #1: The Globalization of Health Care
Nearly two-thirds of practitioners surveyed think it is likely that the number of patients who travel overseas for medical treatment will double to 2 percent of admissions by 2014. However, two-thirds were skeptical that the number of employee benefit plans that will pay for medical tourism expenses would triple.
Practitioner Prediction #2: The Longevity Revolution
Over the next few years, the Baby Boomer generation (born from 1946 to 1964) will begin to reach retirement age, and hospitals will feel the impact. More than 80 percent of practitioners surveyed agree that hospitals will provide services focusing on wellness, such as medically based fitness centers, to appeal to this group. Additionally, 71 percent suggest that hospitals will serve as an outlet for the retired boomers, who are expected to respond to hospitals’ volunteer recruitment initiatives.
Practitioner Prediction #3: Immigration
There was nearly universal consensus among respondents (89 percent) that hospitals will continue to underwrite the costs of caring for unauthorized immigrants who are uninsured or underinsured. In addition, 82 percent of respondents think that hospitals will employ staff members who match the demographic profile of the communities they serve.
Practitioner Prediction #4: Competition Today
More than three-quarters predict that healthcare executives will partner with retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Walgreens to jointly sponsor and operate convenient care clinics. Two-thirds of respondents predict that such hospital-owned clinics will constitute 50 percent of all retail clinics by 2014—up from only 15 percent in 2008.
Practitioner Prediction #5: Physicians
Practitioners achieved almost complete consensus (99 percent) that physician shortages in specialty care will drive an expansion of the roles of physician extenders—nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and certified midwives. Nearly as many (95 percent) agree that advance practice nurses, not physicians, will provide primary care in their hospital’s area by 2014.
Practitioner Prediction #6: Employers
Practitioners believe employers will try to control their healthcare costs by encouraging their employees to pursue healthy lifestyles. Almost 80 percent of respondents agreed that employers will cover their employees’ preventive care, wellness programs, and disease management costs.
Practitioner Prediction #7: Quality and Patient Safety
The consensus is that quality will trump finances in communities throughout the United States. Ninety-seven percent agree all hospital governing boards will have a special committee on hospital quality and patient safety by 2014. Ninety-three percent believe hospital boards will set quality goals with interim targets to reduce harm measures to zero.
Practitioner Prediction #8: Mandatory Public Reporting
Nearly all respondents (97 percent) agree that most hospitals will voluntarily make performance measures available for many procedures, including patient volumes, complication rates, and mortality rates. Likewise, 95 percent agreed that most hospitals will help patients understand and interpret publicly available information.
Check out the upcoming issue of CPR for ways to distill these industry forecasts for discussion with your administrative team. For more information or to order a copy of Futurescan—also available in packages of 15 copies—call (800) 242.2626 or visit www.shsmd.org/futurescan.